IJin Insight

Iran peace deal mirror scenario treasury yield reversal On Saturday, the President said an Iran peace deal was "largely negotiated" and would be "announced shortly." On Sunday, the Secretary of State told reporters there had been "significant progress" and "a little bit of movement," while cautioning that a breakthrough could still take "a few more days." For markets, this is not a foreign policy story. It is the same machinery that produced May's spike in the 30-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high — running in the opposite direction. You may not be tracking diplomatic press conferences. But if you have watched gasoline prices climb this spring, or if your mortgage quote inched up alongside the 10-year yield, you have already felt one side of the chain that a peace deal would now try to reverse. This is the line worth reading more than once: the same mechanism that pushed the 30-year to 5.19% on rising-inflation fears can run ...

treasury yields 2026 cost of money anchor Last week, the most important number in markets was not a stock price. It was a yield. The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond reached 5.19% , its highest level since 2007 — a 19-year high, set in the quiet corner of the market that most retail investors never watch. While the S&P 500 fell for a third straight session and the financial headlines stayed fixed on equities, the repricing that actually mattered was happening in government bonds. You may not own a single Treasury bond. But if you have a mortgage quote, a savings account, a pension, or any money invested in stocks, the 30-year at a 19-year high is already reaching into your financial life — quietly, through the one variable that sits underneath the price of nearly everything. There is an old comparison between interest rates and gravity: the higher rates climb, the heavier they weigh on the price of every other asset. For most of the past two decades, gravity was light. Rates were low,...

2026 semiconductor rally NVIDIA earnings AI chip stocks On Wednesday, NVIDIA reported the single largest quarter any semiconductor company has ever produced. Revenue of $81.6 billion , up 85% from a year ago. Data center revenue of $75.2 billion , up 92%. Guidance for the next quarter of $91 billion. Every headline number beat Wall Street's consensus, some by wide margins. The stock fell. That sentence is the entire story of the 2026 semiconductor trade compressed into four words. The best result in the history of the industry was met by a market that had already priced it — and then the rally moved past the company that produced it. While NVIDIA shares drifted lower after the print, the broad semiconductor benchmarks had been on a run with few precedents in market history. The iShares Semiconductor ETF closed higher for 17 consecutive sessions into mid-May — the longest uninterrupted winning streak for any U.S. semiconductor benchmark since at least 1993, beating the prior ...