Is the Petrodollar Dying? The "Iran War" and the Irony of the Dollar Index
The headlines have been loud all year: "The Era of the Petroyuan is Here." As the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran unfolded, Deutsche Bank and other Wall Street institutions warned that the decades-old dominance of the petrodollar was finally fracturing. The story is compelling, and parts of it are true. But the market data from the crisis told a stranger story than the headlines did. This post first ran in late March, at the height of the Iran conflict. Two months later, with a U.S.–Iran ceasefire reportedly in its final stages, the picture has shifted — and the central paradox it described has, if anything, become clearer. So this is an expansion, updated with where the dollar actually stands as of late May. The Petroyuan Reality Check It is true that sanctioned nations — Russia, Iran, Venezuela — have increasingly turned to the Chinese yuan (CNY) or the UAE dirham (AED) to bypass U.S. sanctions. Saudi Arabia has experimented with China's cross-border dig...